The stage is set. After five months, thousands of games and 31 conference tournaments, the field of 364 has become the field of 68. As millions around the country scramble to remember their ESPN Tournament Challenge password and hundreds more fire up their printers, one question hangs heavy in the air: who will win it all?
If you, dear reader, are one of those millions (or hundreds; analog is cool, I don’t judge), then this is the article for you. As The Mac Weekly’s resident Bracketologist, I have the answers to all the big questions, and I’m here to offer you a comprehensive preview of the 2025 men’s NCAA basketball tournament.
Disclaimer: By the time this article sees the light of day, the NCAA tournament will be nearly halfway done. The following was penned on the 17 and 18 of March, before a single ball was tipped, shot taken or buzzer beaten.
SOUTH
The South region is headlined by (1) Auburn, the deserving top overall seed. This quadrant is filled with defense-first teams and eye-catching first-round matchups. Expect a lot of defensive rock fights; don’t expect a lot of scores in the 80s.
The favorite
Johni Broome and Auburn have looked very vulnerable in recent weeks, dropping three of their last four. No team has ever come into the tournament that cold and won it all. Plus, they’ve got a brutal second round draw whichever way you slice it. (8) Louisville is wildly underseeded after going 18-2 in an admittedly weak ACC, and (9) Creighton has a big man in Ryan Kalkbrenner who will pose a real challenge to Broome and company.
This leaves the door open for a host of other teams. This region truly has 12 schools that could make the Final Four, but my pick is (2) Michigan State, who will also benefit from an injury-hampered (3) Iowa State. It’s worth noting that no top-2 seed that entered the season unranked has ever made the Final Four. If anyone can buck the trend, it’s legendary head coach Tom Izzo.
The sleeper
(11) North Carolina probably should not even be here. They ended the season 1-12 in Quad 1 games and 13-7 in the ACC. However, I expect them to make the most of their inclusion. The Tar Heels are white hot and playing great ball — I could see them making it to the Sweet 16 (or even further).
The upset
This region has the potential to explode with upsets (see UNC above). (12) UC San Diego plays really fun basketball, but (5) Michigan is a tough first round matchup — their two-big lineup may be too much for an undersized UCSD squad.
That’s why (13) Yale is my upset pick for the South. Despite their Ivy League background, they’re more than capable of grinding it out against (4) Texas A&M. If they can limit the Aggies’ second chance opportunities, they have the potential to run a team that shoots just 48/31/70 out of the gym.
EAST
The East is the antithesis of the South. Teams here play fun, sleek, offense-heavy basketball. Among the 17 teams in the region lie those ranked 3rd (Duke), 4th (Alabama), 11th (BYU), 12th (Arizona), 13th (Wisconsin), and 16th (Baylor) in offensive efficiency, per KenPom. Expect some high scoring affairs. For the underdogs, the plan is simple: slow down the game.
The favorite
I’ll spare everyone the suspense. It’s (1) Duke. The Blue Devils feel inevitable. They won the ACC regular season and tournament, the latter without their star player Cooper Flagg. As long as he’s healthy for the big dance, they shouldn’t have any trouble. Their Net Rating (an efficiency metric combining offensive and defensive success) is the best of any team this century.
The sleeper
I see a lot of chalk when I look at the East region. However, I think (4) Arizona can make some noise. They’re led by the mercurial Caleb Love and bring future all-American Henri Veesaar off the bench. This team is battle tested (10-11 in Quad 1 games) and plays fast, fun and physical.
The upset
The East has a couple double-digit seeds who could make some noise. Not enough folks are talking about the (12) Liberty Flames, who can shoot the lights out and will give (5) Oregon a great game.
However, my upset pick is the 11 seeded VCU Rams. Ranked 31st in KenPom, largely thanks to the best two-point defense in the country, the Rams will be a stiff test for the high-flying (6) BYU Cougars in the first round.
MIDWEST
This region is a real wildcard. It features several recent tournament heavyweights, including (1) Houston, (2) Tennessee, (3) Kentucky and (8) Gonzaga. However, all the teams have really identifiable flaws, and some feisty mid-majors are poised to make some noise in the Midwest.
The favorite
There are several teams for whom a Final Four case can be made: (1) Houston dominated the Big 12 to earn their third straight 1 seed but tournament success has long eluded them. The same issues that have plagued them in years past (injuries, slow pace of play) are present with this team. (2) Tennessee and (3) Kentucky have beaten great teams all year long, and the 8 seed Gonzaga Bulldogs are going to be a trendy pick.
That said, I’m going with the (5) Clemson Tigers. The squad boasts a top-25 offense and defense, a proven recipe for success in March. They made it far last year, and that experience will aid them this time around. Plus, they boast wins over Kentucky and Duke. A 5 seed or lower has made the Final Four each of the past 12 seasons; I expect the trend to continue.
Altogether, this remains a very difficult region to predict. Expect this section to look quite silly by the time of reading.
The sleeper
Gonzaga is weird. They’re top-10 in KenPom, have a ton of experience and should be a lot better than they are. But they don’t have many top-line wins and they’ve struggled to find consistency. They’re a real boom-or-bust team. They could absolutely pull together a Final Four run, or they could get blown out in Round 1 by (9) Georgia.
The upset
There are lots of upset candidates in this region. (12) McNeese and (13) High Point both play electric offense, and (10) Utah State will be a handful for (7) UCLA (if you can even call that an upset).
That said, I’m going deeper into the bracket for my upset pick: the 14-seeded Troy Trojans. This team has a ton of experience and plays mean, ugly basketball. If they can catch (3) Kentucky off guard and slow the game down, expect them to send the inconsistent Wildcats packing — or at least give them a tough game.
WEST
The West region features an exciting medley of teams and styles. It’s the only region whose top-5 seeds all hail from different conferences. The West is also chock full of coaching legends — Bill Self (Kansas), John Calipari (Arkansas), Dan Hurley (UConn) and Rick Pitino (St. John’s) are all-time greats who share seven NCAA titles between them. Elsewhere, (3) Texas Tech and (2) St. John’s have had incredible seasons and are Final Four threats in their own right. Expect heavyweight matchups in every round.
The favorite
Despite all the coaching pedigree up and down the region, I see the top seed Florida Gators and their sixth-year head coach, Todd Golden, as the team to beat. Led by superstar Walter Clayton Jr., they’re fresh off an SEC Tournament victory and carry a ton of momentum. A lot of folks will pick (8) UConn to topple them in the second round, but I’m here to tell you not to fall for it.
The Gators are a legitimate title contender, and though attention may be elsewhere, I expect them to run the gauntlet and escape the West.
The sleeper
I admit it: I’m a Kansas fan. But bias aside, there’s a lot to like about the 7-seeded Jayhawks this year. They were the preseason #1 team in the nation and have a very experienced roster, including a couple players who were present on the 2022 national championship squad. I’d bet on a team that is 47-5 all-time in the first round of the tournament, and they’re more than capable of giving (2) St. John’s a game in round 2.
The upset
(12) Colorado State doesn’t count here; they’re favored against the (5) Memphis Tigers, and I expect them to win. Instead, I’m going with the 11 seed Drake Bulldogs to beat (6) Missouri. Drake is led by first year coach Ben McCollum, who previously won four (yes, FOUR) Division II championships in five years with Northwest Missouri State. The Bulldogs are 30-3 and play inspiring basketball. They can hang with just about anyone in the country.
FINAL FOUR
(2) Michigan State vs. (1) Florida and (1) Duke vs (5) Clemson isn’t exactly a storybook Final Four. However, I anticipate a chalky tournament this year more than most. In the Final Four, I give the edge to a surging Florida team over Michigan State. The Gators’ length and athleticism will prove too much for the Spartans to handle.
On the other side of the bracket, Duke will take care of business against their conference rival, setting up a clash of the 1 seeds in the National Championship game…
NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
As inevitable as Duke feels, something is stopping me from picking them to go all the way. Maybe it’s their relative inexperience. Maybe it’s the fact that one of my best friends is a die-hard UNC fan. Maybe I just don’t like Duke. Whatever the reason, the most useful tool when filling out a bracket is the gut, and I am trusting mine. The FLORIDA GATORS will be your 2025 March Madness champions.
